Can Lewis Hamilton handle the pressure or will he blow his second chance to win the world championship? Is there still a chink of opportunity for Felipe Massa? Who faces the most pressure? What are the potential curve balls?
We asked ITV Sport's James Allen, Ted Kravitz, Louise Goodman and Mark Blundell to ponder these questions and then put their cards on the table and predict who will emerge as the 2008 champion. Here's what they had to say...
James Allen
There is certainly a great sense of occasion about this weekend’s Brazilian Grand Prix.
We are about to get a new world champion to add to the two already in the field, Fernando Alonso and Kimi Raikkonen.
After such a competitive season, both Felipe Massa and Lewis Hamilton deserve the title, but there can be only one winner.
As I said in my blog after China, this is probably Massa’s best chance to be champion because Ferrari will make sure that Raikkonen gets on better with the 2009 car than he has with this year’s model and have an intensive test schedule lined up for him.
And beyond Kimi, there is the distinct possibility that Alonso will end up there. So it’s probably Massa’s one and only chance and he knows that.
Hamilton is more likely to have other opportunities to win the title, but he has the added pressure of knowing that he’s thrown one away already and to do that again would take some recovering from mentally.
It would also open the door to the media typecasting him as another Tim Henman, which he would struggle to shake off for the rest of his career.
So the stakes couldn’t be higher for both men.
I’ve identified the areas of concern for Hamilton in my China verdict. To recap, these are the start – which is very dangerous at Interlagos – and the possibility of engine failure given Heikki Kovalainen’s recent engine pop in Japan.
It doesn’t matter if the Ferraris are faster in qualifying and the race: Hamilton’s comfort comes from knowing that there is no other car fast enough to challenge him. So a solid drive to a podium is the most likely scenario.
Massa will probably win the race, but he needs a mistake or a problem for Hamilton to get more out of the weekend than that.
This may come if Hamilton tries to take pole and win the race, to ‘do it in style’ in other words.
That is his nature and his instinct and he looked comfortable with going for it in China.
He had a big car advantage there, however. If it’s close between the two cars in Brazil, with so much at stake he may well opt to play the percentage game.
There is rain forecast for the weekend and, as Michael Schumacher will tell you, even the very best driver can end up in the fence at Interlagos on a rainy day.
I don’t mind who wins the title; I’ve thoroughly enjoyed the season and it is fitting that for ITV’s final F1 programme we should have a race which will show off F1 at its most competitive and its best. Bring it on!
Ted Kravitz
How’s this for a likely scenario?
Friday: McLaren do lots of running with Hamilton and Kovalainen, their new one-race finale aero package (the existence of which ITV Sport informed you of back in Monza) works well, and Hamilton tops the timesheets in one session.
Ferrari are quick too, but run with fuel and do not chase the fastest time.
Saturday: With Lewis’s old engine now installed, he does less than 10 laps in practice, ending up around sixth or seventh on the option tyre at the end of the session. Massa is quicker, as are Raikkonen and Kovalainen.
It may rain.
Mercedes engineers allow Hamilton to turn the engine up for qualifying. McLaren feel more nervous about being involved in a collision at the first few corners than they do about being stuck with an overly aggressive strategy, so they fuel Lewis light and take pole position. Massa is second, Raikkonen third, Kovalainen fourth.
Sunday: It may rain. Following a pre-race warning from Charlie Whiting to keep it clean, the first few corners are uneventful. Hamilton leads, but is overtaken by Massa in the first round of pit stops.
Raikkonen, the only man who wants Hamilton to be world champion more than Lewis himself, hangs back and trails in third.
Hamilton finishes second with Massa, winner of the most races throughout the season, victorious in his home grand prix for the second time.
Louise Goodman
I’m going with Lewis for the championship. It’s his for the losing…and therein lies the rub, because he’s facing a similar scenario to the 2007 season and that’s exactly what he did.
The chinks are still there in Hamilton’s armour – as he proved in Japan. He came in for intense scrutiny in China after the Fuji fiasco, but he appeared much more adept at dealing with that pressure than he was 12 months ago.
He shrugged off the burden and bounced right back, delivering a triumphant performance in Shanghai. His confidence will be right up as a result of that.
Ferrari and Massa will be difficult to beat at Interlagos. Felipe’s been very impressive on his last two outings there and he could easily take the win.
But it’s the bigger picture that counts and the notable disadvantage of a seven-point deficit puts the odds firmly against him for the title.
Assuming Lewis’s machinery doesn’t let him down like it did in 2007 then I think the UK will have its first Formula 1 world champion for 12 years.
Mark Blundell
I feel Lewis has at last got over the need to be number one if the situation does not allow it and this lesson was learned between Japan and China.
In China he put together one of his best F1 weekends to date, handling himself faultlessly in and out the car.
His performance was mind-blowing considering all the pressure and expectations carried over from Japan only a few days before.
The last race has a déjà vu feel as we have been here before with the same points difference and with some of the same players.
But I think the odds are stacked in Lewis’s favour this time around: A year on he’s a more mature driver and has a stronger desire and belief that this time it’s there for the taking.
Massa really has a huge task ahead with all the pressure of his home crowd as well as all the Ferrari fans in Italy willing him on.
To pull off the title he has to get 10 points and rely on Lewis having a nightmare race, and I think it’s probably too much to ask.
The cynics are suggesting that Kimi might put a spoke in the works and put Lewis in a compromising situation, but I trust this will not be the case and the title will be won fairly and squarely.
Read Martin Brundle's take on the title finale