The FIA has revealed the fuel loads with which all 20 cars will start the Turkish Grand Prix. We analyse the data here.
The suspicion after qualifying was that Sebastian Vettel had used a light fuel load to beat the Brawns to pole, and so it proved.
But this was not a gamble on the Monaco scale from Red Bull, as Vettel only has a couple of laps less fuel than his front-row counterpart Jenson Button – and, unlike in the Principality, this time he has the preferred track position and the opportunity to lead the opening stint.
Vettel edged Button by 0.1s in Q3, but was carrying 6kg less fuel on a circuit where each kilo brings a lap time penalty of 0.033s.
So, adjusting the times for their respective fuel loads, the Button/Brawn combination was again the strongest here in Turkey – but only by a whisker, 0.09s to be precise.
Moreover, Mark Webber moves up to third on the fuel-corrected grid (0.18s slower than Button), ahead of the second Brawn of Rubens Barrichello (0.26s adrift).
So the evidence from qualifying is clear: Red Bull is back on the front-running pace this weekend and is a real threat to win the race.
That is a vindication of the double diffuser the Milton Keynes-based squad introduced in Monaco, where its benefits were masked by the slow circuit layout.
Through the fast sweeps of Istanbul – particularly the mighty turn eight – the RB5 has looked rock-solid, and the team also seems to have neutralised most of the deficit it was showing earlier in the weekend in the slow final sector.
Whereas in Monaco it was Ferrari that was clearly Brawn’s closest challenger, here the roles seem to be reversed and the F60 still can’t quite match its two main rivals for overall downforce.
Surprisingly Kimi Raikkonen was the team’s standard-bearer on Saturday, outqualifying Felipe Massa despite carrying more fuel.
Allowing for fuel loads the Finn lapped 0.31s slower than the pole time, while Istanbul specialist Massa came up some 0.49s short.
Toyota appears to have made a complete turnaround from its disastrous Monaco outing and is stronger than it has been since Bahrain, where Jarno Trulli took pole.
Trulli was second quickest in the low-fuel Q2 and his fuel-adjusted Q3 lap was just 0.36s shy of Button’s – although team-mate Timo Glock didn’t get his TF109 as well-balanced and will line up a disappointed 13th.
BMW is also clearly in much better shape in Turkey after its dire Monaco weekend.
Robert Kubica is more heavily laden with fuel than the rest of the top 10 and moves up to ninth in the fuel-adjusted list, just behind Nico Rosberg’s Williams and well ahead of the light-fuelled Fernando Alonso, whose Renault is more than a second off the underlying pace.
Fuel consumption at Istanbul Park is slightly higher than the average, at 2.65kg per 3.32-mile lap.
Barring any early safety cars that would extend the opening stint, Vettel’s fuel load will take him to lap 14 or 15, while Button’s will last him an extra two laps.
Indeed, if the championship leader can stay tucked up behind the Red Bull throughout the first stint, he might even be able to save enough fuel to give himself a three-lap window to leapfrog Vettel following the German’s stop.
The key for Vettel will be to make a good start and not to squander his chances in the first few seconds of the race as he has done on recent occasions.
Button already has the tactical advantage of being able to react to what Red Bull does at Vettel’s first stop – as well as the extra two or three laps on low fuel – so it is imperative for the German that he makes his pole count off the startline.
Red Bull has covered its bases by giving Webber a significantly heavier fuel load than Vettel, and the Aussie is likely to stop on the same lap as Button and one lap after Barrichello.
Raikkonen is fuelled to lap 18, while Rosberg should make it to lap 19 and Kubica to lap 20.
Alonso’s meagre fuel load will see the Spaniard initiating the first round of stops, most likely on lap 13.
As usual, those outside the top 10 are tanked up for longer opening stints, to varying extents.
McLaren has foresworn the dubious strategy it employed in Monaco, where it put Lewis Hamilton on the same pit stop schedule as the leaders even though he was starting at the back of the grid.
This time the world champion will start 16th after another miserable qualifying session, but has the second-highest fuel load of anybody and can go as far as lap 32.
Sebastien Bourdais’ Toro Rosso is this week’s heaviest car, tipping the scales at a whopping 701kg – enough fuel for a 34-lap opening segment.
Tyre performance is more of an unknown quantity than usual here, with little to choose between the two compounds in terms of pure lap time and much depending on the track temperature.
Above 45C the soft tyre is vulnerable and the harder 'prime' tyre is expected to be the compound of choice in the race.
It will be interesting to see whether any of the front-runners opt to get the soft tyre stint out of the way at the start – when the extra grip might help them make up places off the line – or whether they judge that the degradation will be too severe and better deferred until the final stint, by which time there is usually less at stake.
Car weights including fuel (in kg, by grid order)
1. VETTEL Red Bull 649.5
2. BUTTON Brawn 655.5
3. BARRICHELLO Brawn 652.5
4. WEBBER Red Bull 656
5. TRULLI Toyota 652
6. RAIKKONEN Ferrari 658
7. MASSA Ferrari 654
8. ALONSO Renault 644.5
9. ROSBERG Williams 660
10. KUBICA BMW 664
11. HEIDFELD BMW 681.5
12. NAKAJIMA Williams 680.4
13. GLOCK Toyota 689
14. KOVALAINEN McLaren 665
15. SUTIL Force India 668.5
16. HAMILTON McLaren 696.5
17. PIQUET Renault 689.6
18. BUEMI Toro Rosso 686.5
19. FISICHELLA Force India 688.5
20. BOURDAIS Toro Rosso 701