The FIA has revealed the fuel loads with which the cars will start the Japanese Grand Prix. We analyse the data here.
Generally we look to the fuel weights to shed light on what happened in qualifying and to get an idea of the strategies that are likely to unfold in the race – to give context to the starting grid, in other words.
On this occasion matters are rather complicated by the fact that, at the time of writing, there is no definitive grid…
The order has yet to crystallise following the rash of penalties handed down on Saturday evening, but what is clear is that Sebastian Vettel and Red Bull is the combination to beat at Suzuka.
The young German’s pole-winning lap was achieved with slightly more fuel on board than his closest rivals, and owed much to his superiority in the high-speed first sector of the 3.6-mile lap.
That said, Jarno Trulli’s second place was not, as cynics surmised, simply the product of Toyota showboating at its home event; the Italian remains second in the fuel-adjusted order, less than 0.2s behind Vettel and comfortably ahead of Lewis Hamilton.
Adrian Sutil was slightly flattered by carrying the lightest fuel load of the Q3 runners – but he only slips one place to a fuel-corrected fifth, still a ringing endorsement of Force India’s continuing progress on all types of circuit.
Rubens Barrichello was again significantly quicker than Brawn team-mate and title rival Jenson Button in qualifying trim, the 0.3s margin between the understating the Brazilian’s true advantage since he was 2kg heavier.
In fact, Jenson was the slowest of the eight drivers who completed timed laps in Q3, almost all of his 0.8s fuel-adjusted deficit to Vettel arising in the high-speed direction changes of sector one where he struggled to balance the BGP 001.
With the fastest car in the field and a fuel strategy advantage over his pursuers, Vettel is ideally placed to score his fourth win of the year – and perhaps keep some semblance of a title challenge going into Brazil.
His main concern will be the start, which has been a real Achilles heel for Red Bull, and Vettel in particular, this season.
He won’t be pleased to see Hamilton’s KERS-equipped McLaren lining up directly behind him on the grid, but, should he lose the lead at the start, he may have enough of a speed advantage to turn the tables at the pit stops.
Sutil and the two Brawn drivers will drop down the grid as a result of their penalties for failing to heed yellow flags in Q2.
On the face of it, that is a blow to Button’s chances of clinching the championship here; certainly it came as a welcome bonus to Vettel.
On the other hand, it makes Barrichello’s task even harder, since he will be less likely to net the big points haul he needs if he is to make meaningful inroads into Button’s lead.
One problem Button will face as a consequence of his grid penalty is that he will now be starting behind heavier cars, such as Nico Rosberg’s Williams and Robert Kubica’s BMW, that probably won’t keep pace with the leaders and will also be difficult to leapfrog in the pits.
It will be interesting to see whether Ross Brawn has a strategic trick up his sleeve that will overcome this obstacle, but in any case the race looks like being another damage limitation exercise for Jenson.
Alex Sabine
Car weights including fuel (in ky, by qualifying order)
1. VETTEL Red Bull 658.5
2. TRULLI Toyota 655.5
3. HAMILTON McLaren 656
4. SUTIL Force India 650
5. BARRICHELLO Brawn 660.5
6. HEIDFELD BMW 660
7. BUTTON Brawn 658.5
8. RAIKKONEN Ferrari 661
9. KOVALAINEN McLaren 675
10. BUEMI Toro Rosso 665.4
11. ROSBERG Williams 684.5
12. ALONSO Renault 689.5
13. KUBICA BMW 686
14. GLOCK Toyota n/a*
15. ALGUERSUARI Toro Rosso 682.5
16. FISICHELLA Ferrari 661.5
17. NAKAJIMA Williams 695.7
18. GROSJEAN Renault 691.8
19. LIUZZI Force India 682.5
20. WEBBER Red Bull n/a*
* chassis change